By Kevin E. Noonan —
In his latest report on the biotechnology sector ("Biotech 2011 – Life Sciences: Looking Back to See Ahead"), Steve Burrill (at right), CEO of Burrill & Co. continues the theme he has advanced for the past several years, with a twist. As reported in various industry media outlets (including MedCity News and Fierce Biotech, Mr. Burrill believes that biotechnology is presaging a new era of healthcare (including personalized medicine, an emphasis on prevention and wellness, and the use of genomics to produce more accurate molecular diagnostics). However, unlike his more pessimistic view in his Report two years ago, Mr. Burrill uses the disruptions in the financial markets and the economy to justify his claims that biotech executives are "writing their [own] new 'play book' in response."
He predicts "a good year" for biotech in 2011, that the biotech sector will outperform the general markets in 2011 (using his Burrill Biotech Select Index in comparison with the Dow Jones Industrial Average). Specific predictions include that the IPO opportunities will rebound, with more than 25 expected (despite "lackluster" performance of the 17 IPOs launched in 2010), and that investor confidence will increase during the second half of 2011. On the other hand, the biotech industry market cap ($360 million) and overall financing ($15 billion) will stay the same.
He also predicts that collaborations between biotechnology companies and the pharmaceutical industry will increase, but that such collaborations will be greater outside the U.S. -– in the BRIC countries as well as countries like Chile and Malaysia. However, he further predicts that the era of large upfront payments from big pharma is over, and that pharmaceutical companies will preferentially partner with relatively later-stage companies that "mitigate" the risk (as opposed to earlier-stage, more high-risk biotechnology companies), something Mr. Burrill terms "shared risk." Specific predictions include that sanofi will acquire Genzyme, and that there will be several other "marque acquisitions of blue chip biotech companies." But pharmaceutical companies will continue to suffer from restructuring and additional job cuts. He also prophesizes that "green" biotechnology and "clean tech" will boom, particularly for non-food crops.
On the government front, perhaps surprisingly he predicts that the FDA will establish rules for biosimilar drug approval in 2011 (which was not the case with the arguably less difficult process of promulgating rules for generic drug approval under the Hatch-Waxman Act, which took about seven years). Less surprising is his prediction that the gene patenting issue will "heat up" and that there will be continued uncertainty over stem cell patents. Paradoxically, he predicts that "regenerative medicine will be 'hot.'"
Mr. Burrill's Report is available here.
Patent Docs 
Leave a comment